There is a story of a farmer whose only horse ran away. That evening the neighbours gathered to commiserate with him since this was such bad luck. “Your farm will suffer, and you cannot plough,” they said. “Surely this is a terrible thing to have happened to you.”

He said, “Maybe yes, maybe no.”

The next day the horse returned but brought with it six wild horses, and the neighbours came to congratulate him and exclaim at his good fortune. “You are richer than you were before!” they said. “Surely this has turned out to be a good thing for you, after all.”

He said, “Maybe yes, maybe no.”

And then, the following day, his son tried to saddle and ride one of the wild horses. He was thrown and broke his leg, and he couldn’t work on the farm. Again the neighbours came to offer their sympathy for the incident. “There is more work than only you can handle, and you may be driven poor,” they said. “Surely this is a terrible misfortune.”

The old farmer said, “Maybe yes, maybe no.”

The day after that, conscription officers came to the village to seize young men for the army, but because of his broken leg the farmer’s son was rejected. When the neighbours came again, they said, “How fortunate! Things have worked out after all. Most young men never return alive from the war. Surely this is the best of fortunes for you!”

And the old man said, “Maybe yes, maybe no.”

ANOTHER VERSION OF THE STORY

There was a ‘zen’ farmer.

He had a horse, and one day it ran away. All the neighbors said: “Isn’t it awful that your horse ran away?”

The farmer said: “Maybe yes, maybe no.”

The next day the horse returned, with a filly in tow. All the neighbors said: “Aren’t you lucky that your horse came back and now you have a filly too?”

The farmer said: “Maybe yes, maybe no.”

The next day the farmer’s son was trying to break the filly, and it threw him, and he broke his leg. All the neighbors said: “Isn’t it awful that your son broke his leg? Now he can’t help you on the farm until it heals. That’s just terrible!”

The farmer said: “Maybe yes, maybe no.”

The next day the Emperor came through, conscripting all the young men for his latest war. But because the farmer’s son’s leg was broken, he was passed over. The neighbors said: “Aren’t you lucky that your son’s leg was broken after all, so that he was spared from the war?”

The farmer said: “Maybe yes, maybe no…”

The neighbors are quick to attach a judgment to events–both positive and negative–before they can possibly know the full outcome. They assume they know enough to jump to those kinds of conclusions–when they don’t. Kind-of like…us.